Gold pumps 50% depeg Bitcoin! Tether massively buys 14 billion pushing gold price above 5000 dollars.

Under the influence of global market risk aversion, the trends of gold and Bitcoin have shown significant divergence. Gold reached a record high in 2025, with prices rising by more than 50%. An important factor driving the surge in gold prices in 2025 is Tether, which purchased more gold in Q2 and Q3 than any single Central Bank, totaling 116 tons of gold valued at approximately 14 billion USD. The gold/Bitcoin ratio has broken through the long-term declining channel, and the technical target for gold prices is pointing towards 5,000 USD.

Gold and Bitcoin Trend Divergence: 50% Pump vs 1 Trillion Dollar Loss

(Source: YR)

In the context of widespread risk aversion in the global market, Bitcoin continues to be under pressure. The S&P 500 index has retreated from its historical high to around 6,550 points, while Asian and European stock markets have opened mixed. However, after hitting bottom, the S&P 500 index has driven Bitcoin to start recovering. Despite the downward pressure on Bitcoin, gold prices remain strong and are expected to continue their upward momentum in the fourth quarter of 2025.

In the past few months, supported by investors' concerns over the excessively high valuations of tech stocks and the artificial intelligence bubble, Bitcoin and gold have risen in tandem. The U.S. government shutdown has also propelled these two assets to reach historical highs. However, today the trends of gold and Bitcoin have begun to diverge. Gold is establishing a strong upward structure, seemingly poised to break through to higher price levels, while the entire cryptocurrency market has lost over 1 trillion dollars since peaking in October.

In addition, gold performed at an all-time high in 2025, with prices rising over 50%. This increase marks the most extraordinary year for gold in over forty years. Since the 1980s, gold has never achieved such an astonishing rise within a single year. This performance not only surpassed traditional assets like stocks and bonds but also far exceeded emerging assets like Bitcoin.

On the other hand, Bitcoin is struggling due to the waning enthusiasm in the ETF market. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs initially attracted a large number of retail investors, but as prices fell, funds quickly flowed out. The scale of fund outflows from ETFs has been particularly significant in the past few days, with daily outflows reaching hundreds of millions of dollars. This pattern of fund movement indicates that Bitcoin ETF investors lack confidence in holding; once prices drop, they choose to exit rather than buy the dips like long-term investors.

Comparison of Gold and Bitcoin Performance in 2025

Gold: Surged over 50%, achieving the best annual performance in 40 years, continually reaching new historical highs.

Bitcoin: Market value loss exceeds 1 trillion dollars after the October peak, with continuous outflow of ETF funds.

Market Sentiment: Gold is supported by safe-haven demand, while Bitcoin is weighed down by concerns over the tech stock bubble.

Institutional Attitude: The Central Bank and Tether are actively buying gold, while Bitcoin ETF faces a wave of redemptions.

Tether Becomes Top Marginal Buyer in the Gold Market

(Source: Financial Times, UK)

Another important factor driving the surge in gold prices in 2025 is Tether. Although Central Banks are the main drivers of gold demand throughout the year, Tether has quietly emerged as a top marginal buyer. Tether's gold purchases in the second and third quarters exceeded that of a single Central Bank, totaling 116 tons of gold worth approximately 14 billion USD. This positions Tether on par with sovereign gold holders such as South Korea or Hungary.

In addition, in just October, Tether purchased 26 tons, accounting for 12% of all known Central Bank purchases for that month. This scale of purchasing is extremely rare among private enterprises, indicating that Tether is making gold an important component of its reserve assets. As the issuer of the world's largest stablecoin USDT, Tether manages over $130 billion in asset reserves, and its asset allocation strategy has a substantial impact on the global market.

Why did Tether choose to make large-scale purchases of gold? This may be related to its reserve diversification strategy. In the past, Tether's reserves were primarily in US dollar cash and US Treasury bonds, but with rising geopolitical risks and concerns over the credit of the dollar, allocating a certain proportion of gold can enhance the risk resistance of its reserves. Additionally, the rising price of gold also contributes to the appreciation of Tether's reserves, indirectly enhancing the asset support of USDT.

More importantly, Tether's purchasing behavior of gold itself has become a driving force behind the rise in gold prices. When an institution managing hundreds of billions of dollars in assets continuously buys a certain asset, this demand itself will drive prices up. Tether's purchases may also trigger a herd effect among other institutions, as the market views Tether's allocation decisions as a reflection of professional judgment.

Central Bank purchases remain the main driver of gold demand, but the addition of Tether has diversified the buyer structure of the gold market. Central Bank gold buying is primarily based on de-dollarization and reserve safety considerations, while Tether's gold purchases are based on stablecoin reserve management needs. The large-scale buying from these two different motivations has provided extremely solid support for gold prices.

Gold/Bitcoin Ratio Breaks 40-Year Downtrend Channel

(Source: Trading Economics)

The chart of the gold to Bitcoin ratio further confirms the divergence trend, fluctuating within a descending channel since 2015. Recently, the ratio broke out of the descending channel and continues to rise. Since 2021, the ratio has been supported by the black dashed trend line at 0.026. The breakout in October 2025 suggests that the upward momentum of the ratio is strengthening. This positive structure indicates that gold's performance may outperform Bitcoin in the coming months.

The breakthrough of this ratio has significant technical implications. The presence of a descending channel indicates that Bitcoin has been appreciating relative to gold over the past decade, which aligns with the narrative of Bitcoin transitioning from an emerging asset to the mainstream. However, when this long-term trend is broken, it signifies a fundamental shift in the market's judgment of the relative value of the two assets. Investors are beginning to favor the hedging properties of gold over the speculative potential of Bitcoin.

In addition, the Bitcoin/gold ratio chart shows that the ratio broke below the triangle pattern in October 2025. This indicates that Bitcoin prices may continue to decline in the coming weeks. If the ratio confirms a break below the 21 level, it suggests that Bitcoin will face ongoing downward pressure. On the other hand, gold may maintain an upward trend, as the ratio failed to break above the 40 level, which is a historical reversal area on long-term charts.

The break below the 21 level as a support indicates that the advantage of gold over Bitcoin will further expand. This level may correspond to a key psychological price point or a technical support level, and a break below it could trigger technical selling. The presence of the 40 level as a long-term resistance suggests that gold's relative strength still has an upper limit, and once this level is reached, it may trigger profit-taking.

Gold technical target 5000 USD support solid

(Source: Trading View)

The spot gold weekly chart shows that the gold market is still within an upward channel. The recent pullback from the 4,400 USD level was due to extreme overbought conditions and found strong support around 3,900 USD. This support level coincides with the lower boundary of the upward channel pattern. The current price is rebounding higher, and if it can consolidate further above 3,900 USD, it will provide positive momentum for the continued rise of the gold market in the coming weeks.

This bullish price structure is also confirmed by the weekly chart, which shows that prices have been fluctuating within an ascending expanding wedge pattern. The recent consolidation within the symmetrical triangle is similar to the patterns observed in the second quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2024. A breakout from this symmetrical triangle is likely to trigger the next round of upward movement, with a target price of $5,000. This target price is based on the extension of the ascending channel and the measured height of the pattern, making it reasonable from a technical analysis perspective.

Why is the support level of 3,900 USD so critical? This price level is the support line of the lower boundary of the ascending channel and a key price point of the previous consolidation platform. From the distribution of trading volume, there is a significant amount of historical transaction records near 3,900 USD, indicating that many investors have their costs concentrated in this range. As long as this support holds, the upward trend of gold will not be disrupted.

A target price of $5,000 implies about a 25% upside from the current price. This increase is quite significant in the gold market, considering that gold is already at historical highs, and a further 25% increase requires strong fundamental support. The continued buying of Tether, the Central Bank's demand for de-dollarization, the rise in geopolitical risks, and the bullish technical structure all provide support for this target.