Bitcoin is in a precarious state. The latest ISM manufacturing data shows that the American economy is undergoing its sixth consecutive month of recession, while tariffs, rising costs, and a heavy tax burden are weighing down both businesses and households.
For a risky asset like BTC price, this context is really negative. The price chart has shown signs of weakness, and if these conditions continue, the likelihood of a collapse exceeding 50% is no longer far-fetched—it is a very real risk.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Production Decline and Economic Recession
The ISM manufacturing index at 48.7 indicates that the manufacturing sector of America has declined for six consecutive months. Manufacturing is the core driver of the economic cycle. When weakened, it often signals a slowdown in overall economic growth. Although new orders have increased slightly, production has dropped sharply, delivery times have lengthened, and inventories are rising.
This indicates that companies are producing less, stockpiling more inventory, and facing supply chain bottlenecks. Historically, such conditions align with risk-averse behavior in the financial markets, where investors retreat from risky assets such as Bitcoin prices.
Customs Duties, Costs and Pessimism
Producers are caught in tariff instability. Rising raw material costs, unpredictable trade policies, and supply issues are reducing investment in new equipment and forcing layoffs. This is not just an issue for one industry but contributes to the overall pessimism of the economy. As businesses retreat, the capital market will tighten. Bitcoin thrives in a liquidity-rich and high-risk environment. If tariffs and trade wars push investors into defensive assets, the demand for BTC could quickly dwindle.
Tax Burden and Compliance Costs
According to the Tax Foundation's report on the Complexity of Taxes, an analysis of the tax law adds another layer of information. In 2025, Americans will spend 7.1 billion hours complying with taxes, costing the economy about 536 billion dollars - nearly 2% of GDP. This is a significant drag on productivity and consumption. Coupled with high interest rates and a stagnant manufacturing base, the economy will lose growth momentum. For Bitcoin prices, this means that the available cash flow into speculative investments will decrease. Retail demand, one of the core supporting factors for Bitcoin prices, may collapse.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Does the BTC Price Chart Indicate?
Looking at the daily BTC chart:
The price of Bitcoin is currently trading at $111,180, hovering near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. Since mid-July, BTC has been on a downward trend from the peak of $124,000. The price briefly tested the support level around $107,000 and is currently consolidating just above that zone. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating that this contraction often signals a strong volatility.
If the price of BTC cannot hold the level of 107,000 dollars, the next clear support levels will be 100,000 dollars, 96,000 dollars, and then 88,000 dollars. Breaking these levels will confirm a bearish trend.
The drop to the expected support level lower than ( around $80,000–85,000) means that the price will fall more than 50% from its recent high.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Why the Possibility of Bitcoin Price Dropping 50% Could Happen?
If the economic recession worsens: Institutional investors will reduce their speculative exposure to assets. Retail demand will decrease due to rising living costs and increased tax burdens.
The instability in tariffs will continue to harm business sentiment, pulling the stock market down. Bitcoin, which has a correlation with technology and growth assets, will continue to follow this trend.
Technically, the price of Bitcoin is in a downtrend. Breaking the 107,000 USD mark could trigger a wave of panic selling.
In summary
The ISM report, combined with the burden of high taxes and interest rates, paints a picture of an economy under pressure. The Bitcoin price chart does not show resilience but only vulnerability, with many weak support levels ahead. If conditions remain the same – production declines, tariffs remain unresolved, and the tax burden remains, $BTC could easily reduce by 50% or more in the coming months. The $80,000–$85,000 zone looks like a viable target if macro conditions continue to deteriorate.
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Bitcoin Price Warning: Why a 50% Drop May Be Unpreventable?
Bitcoin is in a precarious state. The latest ISM manufacturing data shows that the American economy is undergoing its sixth consecutive month of recession, while tariffs, rising costs, and a heavy tax burden are weighing down both businesses and households. For a risky asset like BTC price, this context is really negative. The price chart has shown signs of weakness, and if these conditions continue, the likelihood of a collapse exceeding 50% is no longer far-fetched—it is a very real risk. Bitcoin Price Prediction: Production Decline and Economic Recession
The ISM manufacturing index at 48.7 indicates that the manufacturing sector of America has declined for six consecutive months. Manufacturing is the core driver of the economic cycle. When weakened, it often signals a slowdown in overall economic growth. Although new orders have increased slightly, production has dropped sharply, delivery times have lengthened, and inventories are rising. This indicates that companies are producing less, stockpiling more inventory, and facing supply chain bottlenecks. Historically, such conditions align with risk-averse behavior in the financial markets, where investors retreat from risky assets such as Bitcoin prices. Customs Duties, Costs and Pessimism Producers are caught in tariff instability. Rising raw material costs, unpredictable trade policies, and supply issues are reducing investment in new equipment and forcing layoffs. This is not just an issue for one industry but contributes to the overall pessimism of the economy. As businesses retreat, the capital market will tighten. Bitcoin thrives in a liquidity-rich and high-risk environment. If tariffs and trade wars push investors into defensive assets, the demand for BTC could quickly dwindle. Tax Burden and Compliance Costs
According to the Tax Foundation's report on the Complexity of Taxes, an analysis of the tax law adds another layer of information. In 2025, Americans will spend 7.1 billion hours complying with taxes, costing the economy about 536 billion dollars - nearly 2% of GDP. This is a significant drag on productivity and consumption. Coupled with high interest rates and a stagnant manufacturing base, the economy will lose growth momentum. For Bitcoin prices, this means that the available cash flow into speculative investments will decrease. Retail demand, one of the core supporting factors for Bitcoin prices, may collapse. Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Does the BTC Price Chart Indicate?
Looking at the daily BTC chart: The price of Bitcoin is currently trading at $111,180, hovering near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. Since mid-July, BTC has been on a downward trend from the peak of $124,000. The price briefly tested the support level around $107,000 and is currently consolidating just above that zone. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating that this contraction often signals a strong volatility. If the price of BTC cannot hold the level of 107,000 dollars, the next clear support levels will be 100,000 dollars, 96,000 dollars, and then 88,000 dollars. Breaking these levels will confirm a bearish trend. The drop to the expected support level lower than ( around $80,000–85,000) means that the price will fall more than 50% from its recent high. Bitcoin Price Prediction: Why the Possibility of Bitcoin Price Dropping 50% Could Happen? If the economic recession worsens: Institutional investors will reduce their speculative exposure to assets. Retail demand will decrease due to rising living costs and increased tax burdens. The instability in tariffs will continue to harm business sentiment, pulling the stock market down. Bitcoin, which has a correlation with technology and growth assets, will continue to follow this trend. Technically, the price of Bitcoin is in a downtrend. Breaking the 107,000 USD mark could trigger a wave of panic selling. In summary The ISM report, combined with the burden of high taxes and interest rates, paints a picture of an economy under pressure. The Bitcoin price chart does not show resilience but only vulnerability, with many weak support levels ahead. If conditions remain the same – production declines, tariffs remain unresolved, and the tax burden remains, $BTC could easily reduce by 50% or more in the coming months. The $80,000–$85,000 zone looks like a viable target if macro conditions continue to deteriorate.