Is the Bitcoin four-year cycle theory still valid? Analysts predict that based on historical trends, BTC may hit between $250,000 and $375,000 before the end of the year.

Porkopolis Economics analyst and co-host of the crypto_voices podcast, Matthew Mežinskis, recently shared his Bitcoin price model insights on the TFTC program. He believes that the rising potential of Bitcoin in the current cycle's later stages is still greater than what most models suggest, with price action continuing to follow a long-standing "long-term dominant trend Power Trend." Based on the percentile range of this trend, he argues that the market could still achieve a 2 to 3 times rise before the end of the year, meaning that Bitcoin prices could reach a range of $250,000 to $375,000. This article will provide a deep analysis of this predictive model and its key validation points for crypto asset investors.

Four-Year Cycle Theory Faces Critical Test: $170,000 Becomes the Key Factor

Mežinskis framed his argument in clear, testable terms. He pointed out that "Bitcoin traditionally easily surpasses the 80th percentile during past boom periods," and emphasized that the strongest phases in early cycles even "very easily" exceeded the 90th percentile. He defined the 80th percentile as approximately 1.3 times the trend and the 90th percentile as 2 times.

In his model, the trend value by the end of 2025 is around 125,000 USD, which sets the 80th percentile validation line at about 170,000 USD and the 90th percentile at 250,000 USD. He explicitly stated: "If we still can't break 170,000 USD by the end of this year or in the first few months of next year, then I will... rethink the idea of the four-year cycle theory," but before that, he emphasized that "the theory has not been proven invalid."

Basic Objectives and Radical Scenarios: Price Projection Based on Historical Percentiles

The core of his outlook is a simple empirical extrapolation from these percentile ranges. "The 90th percentile is 2 times... so 2 times is 250,000 dollars," he explained. He then extended the historical range to the 90th percentile to estimate a more aggressive but still precedent-based target.

"In 2021... it reached the 96th percentile... approximately 2.8 times—let's round that to about 3 times," he said. "The completely fundamental assumption, quite possibly... is a trend of 2 to 3 times... $250,000 to $375,000 for Bitcoin." While he accepted this range, he also lowered his expectations for a surge beyond that. "I would be very surprised if Bitcoin exceeds $350,000 or $375,000 by the end of the year, but I think it’s possible."

Model Framework: Long-Term Trend Lines Beyond Technical Analysis

His framework intentionally avoids the technical analysis of chartists. "We are just observing this long-term dominant trend line and where the price typically sits above or below the trend line every four years," he said. This model—represented by a "black line" he has tracked since 2016—has proven to be more durable than the once-popular stock-to-flow stock-to-flow ratio method: "It's like the best trend line in all of finance... certainly better than the old stock-to-flow ratio model."

These percentiles are based on frequency markers: the 90th percentile indicates a level above which only 10% of observations fall; the 99th percentile indicates a level above which only 1% of observations fall. He observed that the most explosive periods in history—2013 and 2017—briefly reached the 99th percentile, about 4.6 times the trend, which is an area that was never touched in 2021. He believes that this "milder top" dynamic is consistent with market maturity: "As Bitcoin adoption increases, these peaks do indeed decline."

Responding to Extreme Predictions and Cyclical Uncertainty: Leverage Risk Warning

(Bitcoin Hashrate Trend | Source: Porkopolis Economics)

Beyond discussing the fundamental scenarios, Mežinskis also talked about the extreme predictive narratives circulating on social media. He admitted to having heard predictions near "$444,000 in November" and mapped it to his high percentile range: "$400,000 is the 97th percentile... [between] the 97th and 98th percentiles, which is quite rare." These levels, approximately 3.5 times the trend, are by definition levels where the market spends very little time.

He emphasized that none of this is a timer. The framework "does not tell you the time... we are just assuming that a four-year cycle exists." If the cycle is extended or compressed, the model cannot predict that path; it only outlines the heights that the market has reached historically once it starts to thrive. "If the market becomes euphoric... if grandmas start getting excited this Thanksgiving... and give their grandchildren money to buy Bitcoin, then maybe that situation will happen again," he joked, before reiterating: "It is absolutely possible that we will see lower highs, or perhaps we will deviate from the four-year cycle, but based on price action, I have not seen that yet."

Mežinskis also pointed out the dangers that often accompany euphoria, warning that during high plateau periods, narrative shifts may occur simultaneously with leverage-driven vulnerabilities. If Bitcoin treasury companies use short-term convertible debt for leverage to chase higher prices, then an economic downturn may expose the risks of maturity and liquidity mismatches.

"You could definitely see these Bitcoin treasury companies facing a series of liquidations," he said, adding that if the cycle reaches a massive climax, the reflexive wave could "spread all the way to the White House" in terms of policy focus. He cautiously did not present it as a base scenario—"I'm not saying this will definitely happen"—more as a reminder that things that rise with leverage could also collapse through the same channels.

Conclusion: The bullish tone remains unchanged, key levels are worth paying attention to.

His test set for the market in the coming months is clear. A breakthrough of the 80th percentile (around $170,000 according to his trend line for the end of 2025) will keep the four-year cycle template valid; a pump into the 90th percentile range will align with previous booms and mechanically drive the spot price to around $250,000; moving towards the mid-90s will push the price up to about $375,000, which he calls the "max max value" he expects for this cycle — even though history indicates that short-term overshooting cannot be ruled out.

As of now, the structure guiding Bitcoin since 2016 "has not been proven invalid". Before it becomes invalid, Mežinskis' information is clearly bullish: those percentile ranges are there, the price has visited them, and the upper ranges are still well above the current spot price.