The Ethereum unstaking queue has surged to 1.18 million! Will the daily unlocking of $529 million ETH trigger sell pressure?

This Monday, the crypto assets market fell nearly 4% on average. At the same time, the number of Ethereum (ETH) unstaking requests surged to 1.18 million, reaching the highest record in months, with some users expected to wait up to 40 days to complete the process. Although a large amount of ETH is continuously exiting staking, on-chain data indicates that the unstaking behavior is not directly related to the price drop, and the inventory of ETH on exchanges has fallen to a historical low. Market analysis suggests that the actual selling pressure should be assessed in conjunction with macroeconomic conditions and the inflow situation of exchanges. This article will provide readers with an in-depth analysis of the market signals and opportunities behind the wave of ETH unstaking.

1. The scale of staking release has reached a new high, but it is not equivalent to sell.

According to on-chain monitoring data, there are currently about 1.18 million ETH in the Ethereum network awaiting unstaking, with an expected daily release of 115,000 ETH, which is approximately equivalent to 529 million USD at the current price. Despite the large scale, unstaking does not directly imply selling. Many holders may choose to continue holding ETH, waiting for higher prices or participating in other yield opportunities such as DeFi. Dune Analytics data indicates that there has not been a significant correlation between the amount of unstaked ETH and the price of ETH over the past 45 days.

2. The exchange inventory is low, and short-term selling pressure is limited.

It is worth noting that although a large amount of ETH is unlocked daily, data from CryptoQuant shows that the supply of ETH on centralized exchanges has dropped to a historical low of 18.3 million coins. This indicates that most of the unlocked ETH has not directly flowed into the sell pressure pool of exchanges, but may instead have been reallocated to long-term holdings or yield strategies. For example, on August 19, although a large amount of ETH was deposited into mainstream CEXs accompanied by a 5% price drop, the NASDAQ index in the US stock market also fell by 1.46% due to market concerns about the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, indicating that macro factors remain a key variable.

3. Market sentiment and macro environment affect actual trends

The current market is highly sensitive to changes in the macroeconomy, and a large amount of ETH being unstaked combined with negative news may amplify price fluctuations. However, several analysts have pointed out that the concerns may be overstated. Some investors compare the current situation to the unstaking wave of Solana triggered by the FTX incident, which ultimately did not lead to a sustained decline.

The unbonding period for ETH has been extended to 40 days, reflecting both the processing pressure on the network and the increased activity of users participating in staking/unbonding, which is a sign of the maturity of the Ethereum network.

IV. Conclusion

Overall, the short-term wave of Ethereum unstaking may bring psychological pressure to the market, but the actual selling impact needs to be assessed in conjunction with the fund flow of the exchange and the macro environment. Under the background of low ETH inventory on exchanges and increased network participation, a large amount of unlocking may not necessarily translate into selling pressure, but rather may provide opportunities for medium- to long-term positioning. Crypto investors should pay attention to external variables such as US interest rate policies and ETF progress, and avoid making decisions based solely on a single piece of data.